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Here are the four biggest stories on how Afrobarometer’s public attitude surveys shape African governance and political decision-making, as of June 2024.
Afrobarometer’s Influence on Policy
Afrobarometer is a pan-African research network that measures public attitudes on political, economic, and social matters across more than 40 African countries. Its headquarters are located in Accra, Ghana, where it operates as a limited company by guarantee. The organization is led by executive director Prof E Gyimah-Boadi, who is also the chairman of the board.
The surveys conducted by Afrobarometer collect data through face-to-face interviews with randomly selected samples of 1,200, 1,600, or 2,400 individuals in each country. This standardized approach allows for systematic comparison across nations and over time. Since its founding in 1999 by Professor Robert Mattes, Emeritus Professor Michael Bratton, and Prof E Gyimah-Boadi, Afrobarometer has completed nine main rounds of surveys, covering a total of 41 African countries.
Afrobarometer partners with several regional institutions, including the Ghana Center for Democratic Development, the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation in South Africa, and the Institute for Development Studies at the University of Nairobi. Technical partners include the Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa at the University of Cape Town and the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University.
The findings from Afrobarometer’s surveys are disseminated to policymakers, civic educators, journalists, researchers, donors, and average citizens. Decision makers use this data to design or adjust policies based on the expressed priorities, needs, and perceptions of their populations. Civil society organizations leverage these insights to advocate for reforms and to hold governments accountable. Researchers rely on Afrobarometer data to analyze trends in democratic development and governance.
For example, Afrobarometer’s surveys on topics such as conflict, crime, gender equality, and energy supply provide governments with actionable feedback on policy effectiveness and areas of public concern. The availability of this data enables governments to make evidence-based decisions that reflect the preferences and lived experiences of their citizens.
The regular, cyclical nature of Afrobarometer’s surveys means that trends in public opinion can be tracked over time, highlighting shifts in attitudes toward democracy, governance, and economic conditions. Policymakers, in turn, can measure the impact of their actions and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Shaping Governance Through Data
Afrobarometer surveys cover 21 topics, including but not limited to democracy, elections, macroeconomics, poverty, public services, access to justice, and political participation. These topics are selected for their relevance to governance and development across the continent. By repeating its surveys on a regular cycle, Afrobarometer builds longitudinal datasets that capture the evolution of public sentiment.
The survey results are distributed not only in academic and policy circles but also to the general public. Afrobarometer achieves this through presentations, published reports, and online data portals. Media organizations frequently cite Afrobarometer findings to contextualize political developments and to inform coverage of major events, such as elections or constitutional reforms.
One mechanism by which Afrobarometer’s data shapes governance is through direct consultation with government officials. Ministers and agency heads incorporate survey findings into planning processes to identify gaps in service delivery or sources of social tension. In some countries, Afrobarometer data has played a role in national debates about constitutional amendments, electoral reforms, and anti-corruption strategies.
The organization’s face-to-face data collection allows for deep penetration into diverse communities, including rural areas that are often underrepresented in official statistics. This breadth of coverage ensures that minority voices and marginalized populations are included in the policy conversation. For instance, data on access to justice or perceptions of corruption can reveal regional disparities that require targeted intervention.
Afrobarometer’s approach to sampling and survey design minimizes biases that could distort the representation of public opinion. By using random samples and standardized questionnaires, the organization produces results that are comparable across countries and over time. This comparability enables international donors and development agencies to allocate resources more efficiently and to monitor progress toward shared goals.
The availability of subnationally geocoded data, covering survey rounds from 1999 to 2015, allows researchers and policymakers to analyze trends at the provincial or district level. This granularity makes it possible to tailor interventions to local conditions, enhancing the impact of governance reforms.
Afrobarometer’s network structure, involving regional partners and technical advisors, ensures methodological rigor and cultural sensitivity in survey administration. The network’s independence and non-partisan stance help sustain its credibility among stakeholders, reducing the risk of data manipulation or political interference.
Digital Platforms and Political Engagement
Since the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions in 2011, social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube have played an increasingly significant role in African politics. These platforms provide new channels for political discourse, campaigning, and mobilization, allowing both state and non-state actors to shape public opinion and influence decision-making.
State actors, including national governments and ruling parties, use social media to encourage policy discussions, share updates, and promote their agendas. For example, the South African government has official accounts on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Flickr to connect with citizens and disseminate information. This direct communication bypasses traditional gatekeepers in the media and enables government officials to respond rapidly to emerging issues.
During election periods, political parties such as the African National Congress and the Democratic Alliance in South Africa use Facebook as a tool for campaigning and engaging with voters. Presidents and party leaders have built substantial followings, with campaign announcements and policy proposals reaching hundreds of thousands of users instantaneously. This digital outreach has transformed campaign strategies by enabling targeted messaging and real-time feedback from constituents.
Non-state actors, including civil society organizations and opposition movements, also use social media to recruit supporters, organize protests, and monitor government actions. In Ghana, the Committee for Joint Action mobilized protests against fuel price increases using online platforms. In Zambia, the Bantu Watch campaign used Facebook and Twitter to monitor the 2011 presidential election, allowing users to report polling station irregularities and reduce the risk of election fraud.
Social media has democratized access to political information, allowing people from different social backgrounds to participate in debates that were previously confined to elite circles. Activists and ordinary citizens can now share their opinions, organize campaigns, and expose corruption with reduced risk of censorship. In Zimbabwe, political youth have used Facebook to evade state surveillance and discuss sensitive topics away from government scrutiny.
Governments, however, have responded to the rise of digital activism with new forms of censorship and surveillance. In South Africa, parties monitor public sentiment on Facebook to identify dissent and potential threats to stability. In Chad, the government blocked access to multiple platforms, including Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, and Viber, effectively restricting online information flows. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe have also resorted to internet shutdowns during periods of political unrest or before contested elections.
Extremist groups have exploited the reach of social media to spread propaganda, recruit followers, and finance their activities. Boko Haram has used Twitter and YouTube to target disaffected youth in Nigeria, while Al-Shabaab has established an online presence to promote its cause. The Islamic State has leveraged a broad range of platforms—including Telegram and WhatsApp—to reach potential recruits and circumvent account shutdowns on mainstream channels.
The effectiveness of social media as a political tool is shaped by challenges such as low literacy rates, limited internet access, and the high cost of data in many African countries. These barriers mean that digital activism often excludes significant portions of the population, reinforcing existing inequalities in political participation.
Social media networks are also vulnerable to misinformation and the creation of echo chambers, which can fuel polarization and undermine trust in public institutions. Activists and civil society leaders express skepticism about the long-term impact of online activism, noting that digital campaigns do not always translate into sustained, concrete political change.
South Africa’s Evolving Political Landscape
South Africa operates under a multi-party system anchored by a constitution adopted in 1996, which guarantees human rights and establishes mechanisms of accountability. The country’s Parliament consists of two chambers: the National Assembly and the National Council of Provinces, with major legislative power residing in the National Assembly.
The African National Congress has dominated South African politics since the end of apartheid in 1994, serving as the ruling party at both the national and most provincial levels. However, in the May 2024 general election, the ANC received 40.18% of the national vote, losing its majority in the National Assembly for the first time in the country’s democratic history. Despite this, the ANC retained power by forming a coalition government.
The Democratic Alliance emerged as the primary challenger, securing 21.81% of the national vote. Other significant parties represented in Parliament include the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party, which received 14.58%, the Economic Freedom Fighters with 9.52%, and the Inkatha Freedom Party at 3.85%. The rise of new parties such as ActionSA and Rise Mzansi, along with smaller parties, illustrates the increasing competitiveness of the political landscape.
South Africa’s electoral system is based on party proportional representation, which allows for a broad spectrum of voices in Parliament. Universal suffrage has been in place since 1994, enabling all adult citizens to participate in open and competitive elections every five years.
Regional voting patterns play a crucial role in shaping national outcomes. In the 2024 election, the ANC’s seat losses were distributed unevenly across provinces, reflecting divergent priorities among urban, rural, and regional constituencies. This regional variation is a key concern for parties seeking to build or maintain national coalitions.
Governance issues such as service delivery, corruption, and economic development are central to party competition. Afrobarometer’s surveys provide empirical data on public perceptions of these issues, enabling both the ruling party and the opposition to develop policy proposals grounded in citizen priorities. The availability of subnational data further allows parties to tailor their messages to regional concerns.
South Africa’s judiciary, led by the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Court of Appeal, enforces the constitution and has the authority to overrule laws that violate fundamental rights. The separation of powers and an independent judiciary are cornerstones of the country’s democratic system.
The ANC’s loss of majority and the resulting coalition arrangement mark a significant shift in the balance of power, with implications for governance, legislative priorities, and policy debates. The rise of new political actors and shifting vote shares highlight the dynamic nature of South African democracy, where public opinion—as measured by organizations like Afrobarometer—directly influences the course of political events.
The most specific fact in this landscape is that in the 2024 general election, the ANC received 40.18% of the national vote, representing a loss of its parliamentary majority for the first time in South Africa’s democratic history, and secured its position through a coalition government.