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The center of Isaias is inland, but the danger has not passed. In its four p.m. Central Time advisory on Saturday, October tenth, the National Weather Service located the post-tropical cyclone about five miles west of Birmingham, Alabama. It was moving north-northeast at about fifteen miles per hour, with sustained winds near thirty. The headline from forecasters was not its classification or its wind speed. It was the continuing risk of flash flooding across the Southeast.
The heaviest rain in the forecast reaches well beyond the storm’s center. The Weather Service said three to six inches, with isolated totals as high as ten inches, were possible across parts of the southern Appalachians, from northeast Georgia into the western Carolinas, and from South Carolina’s upper coast into eastern North Carolina. Another one to two inches was possible across much of the remaining Southeast and into northern Florida. Those are forecasts, not measurements of rain already fallen.
Why does a storm with thirty-mile-per-hour sustained winds still warrant attention? Rain can accumulate over a broad area while the center keeps moving. The advisory warned of flash, urban, and river flooding, with possible landslides in the southern Appalachians. It also said significant river flooding in the western Florida Panhandle was expected to crest between Saturday and Sunday. In other words, conditions downstream may worsen after the most obvious part of the storm has moved away.
Water is not the only concern. Forecasters said strong gusts could bring down trees and power lines, especially in elevated terrain. A couple of tornadoes were possible Saturday across eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. Along much of the Gulf Coast, swells associated with Isaias were expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents through the weekend. These are distinct hazards in different places; a calm-looking afternoon in one neighborhood does not describe conditions across the storm’s entire footprint.
If you are in an affected area, the useful question is not simply, ‘Where is the center now?’ It is, ‘What warning applies where I am?’ The federal advisory listed flood watches for portions of the Southeast and southern Appalachians, plus wind alerts in parts of the region. Check your local weather office and emergency alerts for instructions specific to your location. And if a road or walkway is flooded, FEMA’s advice is direct: turn around, don’t drown.
This update is based on the four p.m. Central advisory on October tenth, not a prediction that every threatened location will experience the worst-case rainfall. Forecasters expected Isaias to turn more northeastward and speed up by Sunday; they scheduled another complete advisory for ten p.m. Central. Until then, the central takeaway is simple: a storm can lose its tropical designation without losing its ability to flood communities inland. This has been your U.S. news update.